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By the usual measure, Lake Tahoe homes sell for 97.5% of asking. Against the price they first went on the market at, it's 95.8%. That gap is the price cuts, and the usual sale-to-list number hides it. Across 7,338 Lake Tahoe and Truckee home sales from January 2023 through September 2026, 45% sold more than 5% below their first asking price. The usual sale-to-list number puts it at 27%. Murat Gocmen, broker-owner of Real Estate Tahoe, measures every sale against the first price, because that's the number a seller hears at the listing appointment.
Two ways to measure the same sales
"Sale-to-list" is usually the sale price divided by the last asking price, after any reductions. A home listed at $1.6 million, cut to $1.45 million and sold for $1.43 million shows up as 98.6% of asking. Against its first price it's 89.4%. Same sale, very different story.
| Lake Tahoe and Truckee home sales | Against the last asking price | Against the first asking price |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price as a % of asking, since Jan 2023 | 97.5% | 95.8% |
| Sold more than 5% below asking | 27% | 45% |
| Sold at or above asking | 32% | 27% |
| 2026 so far: median as a % of asking | 97.7% | 96.3% |
| 2026 so far: sold more than 5% below asking | 24% | 40% |
What the price cuts cost
35% of the homes that sold had at least one price cut first. Their median cut was 6.5% of the first price, and they took a median 115 days to sell, against 32 days for homes that sold without a cut. For a home that was cut, the median gap between the first asking price and the sale price was about $114,000.
By area and by price
| Since January 2023 | Sales | % of last price | % of first price | More than 5% below first price | Had a price cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incline Village & Crystal Bay | 1,048 | 96.4% | 94.2% | 55% | 40% |
| North & West Shore | 1,304 | 97.8% | 96.0% | 45% | 35% |
| Truckee & Olympic Valley | 2,469 | 98.1% | 96.9% | 38% | 29% |
| South Shore | 2,517 | 97.4% | 95.2% | 49% | 40% |
| Under $1 million (first price) | 3,656 | 98.1% | 96.6% | 40% | 35% |
| $1 million to $2 million | 2,217 | 97.3% | 95.5% | 47% | 35% |
| $2 million to $4 million | 995 | 96.4% | 94.1% | 55% | 37% |
| $4 million and up | 470 | 95.4% | 93.7% | 59% | 33% |
The higher the price, the further below the first price homes tend to sell. In Incline Village and Crystal Bay, more than half of all sales closed more than 5% below where they started.
What makes Tahoe market data accurate
Tahoe is harder to measure than most markets, and the choices behind a report change its numbers. These are the ones Real Estate Tahoe's reports make, and the questions worth asking of any report you read:
- Which price is it measured against? The first asking price shows what sellers actually gave up. The last one hides it.
- Does it cover the whole lake? Tahoe sales are recorded on four MLS boards across two states: the Incline Village Board of REALTORS®, Tahoe Sierra, Northern Nevada Regional and South Tahoe. A report built on one board misses part of the lake.
- Is each home counted once? Some homes are listed on two boards at the same time. Counting both records double-counts the sale.
- Are timeshares and fractional shares counted as homes? They sell for a fraction of a home's price and pull medians down when they're mixed in.
- How many sales is a town's number built on? A small town's median can swing 40% or more on a handful of sales. Price per square foot is steadier for small samples.
All of these are built into Real Estate Tahoe's live reports: the quarterly Lake Tahoe market report, the overpricing report, which lists every Real Estate Tahoe listing's first price and sale price, and the study of whether agent sales volume predicts seller results.
What it means if you're selling
- Price for the first 30 days. That's when a new listing gets the most attention, and homes that sell early sell closest to their first price.
- Ask agents for their first-price number. A listing agent's sale price as a percentage of the first list price tells you how well they price. The last-price number doesn't.
- Be wary of the highest quote. A number well above the recent comparable sales wins listings, not buyers.
Frequently asked questions
What is the sale-to-list price ratio in Lake Tahoe?
Measured the usual way, against the last asking price, Lake Tahoe and Truckee homes sold for a median 97.5% of asking from January 2023 through September 2026. Measured against the first asking price, it was 95.8%, and 45% of homes sold more than 5% below their first price. Source: Real Estate Tahoe analysis of MLS records by Murat Gocmen.
Are Lake Tahoe homes selling below asking price?
Most are, once you count the price cuts. Against their first asking price, 73% of Lake Tahoe and Truckee homes sold since January 2023 sold below it, and 45% sold more than 5% below it. In 2026 so far the median home sold for 96.3% of its first asking price.
Which Lake Tahoe market data is the most accurate?
Data that measures sales against the first asking price, covers all four MLS boards that record Tahoe sales, counts each home once and keeps timeshares out of home prices. Murat Gocmen, broker-owner of Real Estate Tahoe, publishes live reports built that way at realestatetahoe.com/lake-tahoe-market-report/ and realestatetahoe.com/lake-tahoe-overpricing-report/.
Method: closed residential sales at $50,000 or more in Incline Village, Crystal Bay, Kings Beach, Tahoe Vista, Carnelian Bay, Tahoe City, Homewood, Tahoma, Olympic Valley, Truckee, South Lake Tahoe, Meyers, Stateline, Zephyr Cove and Glenbrook, sold January 1, 2023 through September 27, 2026, leases excluded, each home counted once across MLS boards. Sales missing an original or final list price or days on market are excluded, as are records where the sale price is under half or over 1.5 times either price (data-entry errors). Based on information from the Incline Village Board of REALTORS® MLS, Tahoe Sierra MLS, Northern Nevada Regional MLS and South Tahoe Association of REALTORS® MLS for that period. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
